Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on Seasonal Temperatures in Serbia

Abstract

An objective classification scheme by Jenkinson and Collison is applied to the period 1961–2010 to statistically model the temperatures over Serbia. The originally identified 26 weather types (WTs) are reorganised into 10 basic types. This discussion includes the synoptic characteristics, frequency and trends of the 10 WTs as well as the trends of seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Serbia. In this area, the anticyclonic weather type is predominant throughout the year, and its negative trend is significant in summer and autumn. The relationship between air temperature and atmospheric circulation types is investigated by analysing the mean and anomalies of mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for each individual atmospheric circulation type and by stepwise regression. The multiple regression models developed for six stations using circulation WTs as predictors showed the best performance in modelling winter mean temperatures for Zlatibor and Loznica compared to the other stations, while the models for other seasons proved to be inadequate.Keywords: atmospheric circulation; temperature; Serbia; weather types; trend; stepwise regression

This research was supported by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, No. 7389, Project: “Extreme weather events in Serbia—analysis, modelling and impacts”—EXTREMES.