Models vs observations!

Year 2023 has been declared the warmest in Serbia since 1951, when systematic observations began across the entire territory.

Climate models are one of the reason why this doesn't come as a surprise to those researching climate and climate change.

The graph illustrates the anomaly of the annual temperature in Serbia, derived from the 8 climate models (2 scenarios), that were obtained from the Digital Climate Atlas of Serbia, along with observed values from the RHMSS and Copernicus ECMWF reanalysis.

Unfortunately, climate models cannot provide an exact picture of year to year changes in climate conditions. However, they prove valuable when examining changes in long-term averages, trends, and alterations in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events.

During the EXTREMES Project, funded by Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, researchers from Institute of meteorology, Faculty of Physics, Belgrade will use the EBUPOM climate model, particularly concerning future extreme events in Serbia. Notably, the results of this model, developed at the Institute, are part of the IPCC digital atlas.