Reconstructing and Projecting 2012-like Drought in Serbia Using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble

Abstract

Droughts are among the most impactful climate extremes in Serbia, with significant socio-economic consequences, particularly in agriculture. The summer of 2012 was one of the most extreme drought events in Serbia’s history, characterized by record-breaking temperatures and prolonged precipitation deficits. In this study, we investigate the meteorological aspects of the 2012 drought, its progression, and its potential recurrence under future climate conditions. Using the high-resolution gridded observational dataset (EOBS) and Single-Model Initial-Condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from CMIP6—the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM 1.2) Grand Ensemble, we analyze precipitation deficits and assess the ability of MPI-GE CMIP6 to reproduce the observed event. We identify analogue events in MPI-GE CMIP6 that resemble the 2012 drought and examine their occurrence across historical and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Our results indicate that MPI-GE CMIP6 effectively captures precipitation deficit extremes and that events comparable to the 2012 drought become more frequent and severe under higher greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. This study underscores the importance of a large ensemble in understanding the full distribution of extreme drought events and provides Serbia-specific insights, which is valuable for regional climate adaptation planning.

This research was supported by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, No. 7389, Project “Extreme weather events in Serbia—analysis, modelling and impacts”—EXTREMES.