Changes in extreme temperature indices and heat waves in Serbia

Our society and our infrastructure are increasingly exposed to severe and intense storms. It is therefore crucial to closely monitor signs of change in climate extremes. In this study, an analysis of changes in extreme temperature indices and heat waves (HWs) for Serbia was conducted using a high-resolution daily gridded temperature dataset for the period
1951–2020. The annual and seasonal trends of the indices were calculated and tested for statistical significance using the non-parametric Man-Kendall test. A correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationships between the large-scale circulation patterns and the extreme temperature indices.

The results showed that a warming trend has prevailed over the last seventy years, with slightly stronger changes in the mean maximum temperatures (TXM) than in the mean minimum temperatures (TNM). A statistically significant increase in the number of HWs was observed on an annual basis and during the summer. The correlation between the HWs and the large-scale circulation patterns showed that the East Atlantic (EA) pattern had a positive correlation with the number of HWs on an annual basis and during the summer, while the EA/ Western Russia pattern (EA/WR) had a negative correlation. The North Atlantic Oscillation had a significant influence on the HWs in both summer and winter. It was found
that the NAO, the most important teleconnection pattern during the winter months in Europe, had a weaker influence on the temperature indices in Serbia than the EA pattern, but a stronger one than the EA/WR pattern.

Acknowledgment:

This research was supported by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, No. 7389, Project Extreme weather events in Serbia - analysis, modelling and impacts” - EXTREMES

Poster presentation: link

Presentation: link