Predicting strong local wind with high-resolution nonhydrostatic numerical weather prediction model

The nonhydrostatic multiscale model on the B grid (NMMB) was employed to forecast an episode of intense local Kosava wind in northeast Serbia. Kosava, a vigorously turbulent local wind, originates from the east or southeast near the Danube's "Iron Gate," moves westward over Belgrade, and then extends northward into the regions of Romania and Hungary. Typically attributed to a jet-effect wind within the narrow gorge of the "Iron Gate," it can reach maximum speeds exceeding 30 m/s. The NMMB model, with a horizontal resolution of 1.2 km, was utilized for the 2019 Kosava episode forecast. The high resolution, that surpasses the typical standards in numerical prediction models used by national meteorological services and other centers, can be crucial for accurately predicting strong wind gusts and capturing the specific dynamics and characteristics of the wind associated with the narrow gorge. The NMMB model results are compared with measured wind data and the results from models with lower resolutions.

Acknowledgment:
This research was supported by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia, No. 7389, Project Extreme weather events in Serbia - analysis, modelling and impacts” - EXTREMES

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